Olivia Bina

Purpose – Drawing on a EU-funded research project on urbanisation in China and Europe (URBACHINA), the purpose of this inquiry is to explore the potential of foresight – through visionary scenarios and related participatory processes – in promoting learning and sustainable futures in China’s centrally planned context. Our research explores the use of backcasting, of Donella Meadows’ “levers” and Paul Raskin’s “proximate-ultimate drivers” and of archetypal worldviews to further our understanding of how we think about the future, and of the tension between transition scenarios and transformative, paradigmatic or deep change.
Design/methodology/approach – A review of recent foresight studies and literature provides an overview of the latest approaches: in particular the methods, scope, process, level of participation, themes discussed and wild cards considered. Building on this, the inquiry designs and implements a participatory, normative and qualitative scenario building to explore sustainable urban futures for China, adapting the elements of Joseph Voros’ basic foresight process to include a total of nine steps, with five workshops, two international surveys, an adapted backcasting step and internal consistency mechanisms.
Findings – The combination of a participatory iterative process with normative approaches to envisioning, helped question assumptions and deeply ingrained development models, as well as the narrow space for “alternatives” resulting from China’s centralised, top-down planning and decision-making. The experience confirms the power of scenario/storyline building in helping reflect and question strategic policy choices and enrich urban policy debates. The process successfully proposed a number of steps that ensured triangulation of the envisioning outcomes and additional learning also through backcasting. Finally, the research shows a clear link between the development of scenarios space, the debate on transition and transformative futures and archetypal worldviews, which were shown to be stable even after decades.
Originality/value – The URBACHINA approach to the specific challenge of sustainable urbanisation in China applies a strong normative component combined to more locally accepted exploratory methods and introduces a participatory approach to all key stages of scenario building. This represents an innovative contribution to the country’s foresight practice and the results help Chinese decision makers to reflect on the wider sustainability implications of their urban strategy. The inquiry deepens our understanding of the use of proximate and ultimate drivers of change and of the tension between transition and transformation pathways to our future.

The European Union is exploring the future through the lens of Grand Societal Challenges (GSCs). As part of the EU funded project ‘Forward Looking Analysis of Grand Societal Challenges and Innovative Policies’ (FLAGSHIP) we take an innovative interdisciplinary approach to the analysis and critique of the way Europe’s GSCs have been framed, by inquiring into how the detailed qualitative content analysis of popular art can enrich the interpretation and the underlying problem definition of GSCs, and hence the search for solutions for a ‘better future’. Popular art provides materials for thinking about the paradoxes of progress, the transformations in the main future societal challenges and the transformations of the future that will be brought about by science and technology. Filmic and literary representations are means of transmitting cultural codes and values, thus they reflect cultures and ideologies of specific historical moments and societies. They provide alternative perspectives of the central challenges of future societies. Therefore aim is to ask: 1) What concerns and challenges are envisaged in popular art texts that engage with the notion of future? 2) How are these concerns and challenges framed and how do they enrich our understanding of the GSCs identified for today’s societies? 3) What are the predominant differences and what do they reveal of today’s framing of GSCs? The inquiry involves the selection of 64 between novels and movies produced over the last 150 years. A detailed analytical framework is defined in order to carry out a content analysis of these items that can reveal how GSCs have been problematized in popular art. The analysis of the detailed records for each film and novel reveals the importance of long-lasting concerns and cultural formations contained in utopias and dystopias, and their complex intermixing; and the presence of major, archetypal visions of the future and of popular paradigms of the future which may constrain our imagination. It suggests that the EU definition of GSCs gives far less attention to the dimension of values, hope and purpose of life, compared to what is imagined in popular art’s envisioning of possible or desirable futures. The analysis concludes with a discussion about the tension between imagination and archetypal ways of thinking about the future, and how to rethink some of EU’s GSCs.

Keywords: Future, Fiction, Imagination, Grand Societal Challenges, FLAGSHIP

The United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (or Rio+20) was conceived at a time of great concern for the health of the world economy. In this atmosphere ‘green economy’ was chosen as one of two central themes for the conference, building on a burgeoning body of literature on the green economy and growth. This research examines the relationship and influence between the double crisis and the rise of ‘greening’ as part of the solution. The aim is to understand what defines and distinguishes the proposals contained in twenty-four sources on the green economy (including policy documents by international agencies and think tanks, and research papers), and what is the meaning and implication of the rising greening agenda for sustainable development as it enters the 21st century. Through a systematic qualitative analysis of textual material, three categories of discourse that can illuminate the meaning and implication of greening are identified: ‘almost business as usual’, ‘greening’, and ‘all change’. An analysis of their relationship with Dryzek’s classification of environmental discourse leads to the identification of three interrelated patterns: (1) scarcity and limits, (2) means and ends, and (3) reductionism and unity—which deepen our understanding of the tensions between emerging propositions. The patterns help explain the meaning and implications of greening for sustainable development, revealing an economisation and polarisation of discourses, the persisting weak interpretation of sustainable development, and a tension between the fixing or shifting of dominant socioeconomic paradigms that underpin its conceptualisation.
Keywords: green economy, sustainable development, limits, scarcity, paradigm shift, Rio+20

The debates questioning the meaning of growth point to a need for a more holistic understanding of human beings and of the economic actor, fundamental to economic theory and practice. This contribution turns to virtue ethics in order to reframe the self in more reflexive, relational and environmental terms. We explore the significance of understanding humans' sense of responsibility that is quintessentially relational, and of their capacity and need to relate to nature as well as community and society. We begin by reviewing the main arguments in the thriving debate in ecological economics, around what the characteristics of the human being can contribute to implement an ecologically sustainable development. Our aim is then to draw a link between this debate and that of virtue ethics, that leads to a different understanding of the human being, of what can contribute to individual wellbeing (and a good life): responsibility, we argue, is not only a value but a virtue, that enables individuals to nd meaning in acting responsibly towards the evironment,emphasising the multiple benfits that arise from framing good lives in active terms.We conclude reflecting on the challenges to, and implications of our proposition for government institutions, particularly education.

While growth remains as our main goal economic and environmental crisis will persist. A green economy requires us to aim at development rather than growth, through the responsible promotion of justice, the common good, and environmental sustainability.

The paper analyses six international-scale responses to the financial and climate change 'double crisis' in order to: review how they define problems and solutions, analyse what underpins the policy choices revealed in these responses (the 'green turn'), reflect on the implications of the proposed solutions in terms of sustainability and global environmental justice, and to suggest three elements for a paradigm shift towards an 'alternative' turn embedded in ecological economics theory. The analysis reveals that responses by leading international organisations continue to appeal to the precepts of neoclassical economy. We argue that from an ecological economics perspective, policy responses under the various labels of green economy, green growth, sustainable growth, green new deal, fall well short of what is needed to fight the environmental crisis and rising inequality across and within countries. The idea of justice and equity that underpins the mainstream approach seems inadequate in terms of sustaining our environmental base and global environmental justice. Based on this critical review, we propose an 'alternative turn', centered on three elements of a paradigm shift leading to a new economy where the environmental base and global environmental justice are at the centre of the discourse.

The importance of improving the effectiveness of Plan EIA and SEA-type evaluations in China cannot be
overstated: at a time when the country's economy is being boosted by a stimulus package worth over RMB
400 trillion – largely for infrastructure – the pressure on China's already strained environment and resource
base is bound to increase. The aim is to propose the criteria for plan EIA's effectiveness to raise the awareness
of the need to strengthen the performance of the assessment and maximize its potential benefits. The authors
first review critically the discourse on the effectiveness of the impact assessment, identifying three
dimensions: substantive, procedural and incremental. The resulting conceptual framework allows them to
interpret the weaknesses of the Chinese discourse on the effectiveness and of the practice of the Plan EIA to
date. The result is the identification of a clear gap, both in terms of the breadth of the concept, and in terms of
the quality of the existing criteria, which tend to be very generic to the point of inapplicability. The analysis
also reveals a need for transitioning from formal models of the Plan EIA to more strategic approaches, in a
gradual manner that is consistent with context-specificities. The proposal of a set of preliminary criteria for
effectiveness is therefore structured on three levels. This framework is meant to input into the ongoing debate
on how to improve the practice of PEIA and the SEA-type evaluations in China, and provide ideas for a
government strategy aimed at maximizing the positive impact of PEIAs on planning, as well as on the context
of application.

This is the Editorial introducing a special issue on SEA-type practice in China over more than a decade. From the paper:

'The origins and objectives of this Special Issue

This Special Issue reports on some aspects of this rapid expansion of PEIA and SEA practice in China. Its aim is to provide a forum for international sharing of  China’s experiences, the opportunity for observation and commentary on the development and practice of SEA in China. The analysis of experience revealed in these papers can promote and underpin SEA further development of SEA and practice and effectiveness in China.
Seventeen manuscripts by scholars and practitioners were invited to join this Special Issue initiative, mostly selected from participants at the international conference on implementing the EIA Law in China: Five-Year Review and Prospects, which took place in March 2009.  Six papers and three short communications were eventually selected for this Special Issue.'

In rich countries most people have good lives: food and shelter, health, comfort, technology, culture, open relationships with each other, democracy, peace. The list could go on; a list of a golden age like no other before it. However, injustice and unsustainability have become an increasingly fundamental part of the socio-economic system that supports such “good lives”. Indeed, nothing can focus the mind on justice and sustainability more effectively than the idea of almost 2.5 billion Chinese and Indian pursuing a similar notion of the good life. The topic of this Workshop thus becomes nothing short of quintessential for our future. Our paper begins by arguing that these two conditions – unsustainability and injustice - are essential but not sufficient to describe the current predicament. Irresponsibility towards the environment is the third condition, and crucially, it distinguishes itself for relating to the individual, rather than to the system(s). We argue that working on the notion of responsibility is the means through which we can develop an alternative notion of good life, thus engaging with the rising agenda on happiness from a different perspective. We explore responsibility as a virtue thus enabling individuals, citizens to find meaning in acting responsibly towards the environment. We examine the multiple benefits that arise from framing good lives in active terms, focusing on citizens and their capacity for responsible action, compared to the passive notion of consumers. The notion of virtue is central to our proposition. Virtue includes a mix of being and acting good for the self, for the other, for the future and for the planet, and is linked to the idea of eudaimonia. Contributions to a eudaimonia will come from the often referred “feel good factor” and the Humean “inward peace of mind” given by an active environmental citizenship. Thus acting good – responsibly towards the environment - contributes to a better environment and will make our lives more meaningful and ultimately feel happier persons. Furthermore placing responsibility at the centre of a notion of the good life can create a space that enables and empowers individuals to envisage a life that is good for them, for the planet, for all children and all species.

In spite of almost two decades of experience, Strategic Environmental Assessment's (SEA) foundations remain unclear to the point that the case for needing an instrument called ‘SEA’ could be questioned. The aim is to ask: what problems was SEA meant to solve, and what needs was it meant to address, by reflecting on the strengths and weaknesses of SEA thinking to date. I do so by organising the reasons and arguments offered by scholars and practitioners under three ‘lines of argumentation’ related to the strategic dimension of SEA, its methods and purpose. I explore how each line of argumentation affects the concept of (the purpose and role) and approach to (the procedures, methods and tools) SEA. The problematisation of these arguments and their evolution makes a case for the urgent acknowledgment of misleading simplifications. From this analysis I propose a number of promising fields of inquiry that could help respond to the growing expectations attached to SEA and strengthen its ‘strategic’ dimension: revisiting the concept of assessment in SEA, promoting strategies for the introduction of SEA, and strengthening the contribution of theory to SEA practice. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has a prominent position in the ongoing search for instruments that can help governments and other organisations to pursue the complex goal of sustainable development. Academic literature and practitioners have devoted increasing attention to this instrument since the late 1980s, and the mid-
1990s have witnessed a surge in legislation and methodological guidance throughout both developed and developing countries. However, the theoretical basis of this instrument remains weak and this thesis contends that the actual reason for its existence (raison d'être) of SEA is inadequately conceptualised. The first stage of the research critically reviews the theory and practice of SEA, identifying tensions, weaknesses and promising trends in the concepts underlying its three dimensions: strategic, environmental and assessment. These show that the idea that there is something 'strategic', whose environmental effects should be assessed - is misleading, as well as simplistic, thus supporting the call for a re-conceptualisation of SEA. The meaning of two common claims (that SEA is to contribute to sustainable development and to the improvement of policy-making processes) in academic and policy literatures is explored in detail. Combining environmental assessment literature
with work related to the knowledge perspective of policy-making, policy learning and policy analysis, the thesis then develops a series of propositions for a new interpretation of SEA's raison d'être. These relate to four themes: context, object, purpose and assessment. The second stage seeks to deepen the understanding of the trends and propositions identified, and to verify their relevance in a developing context. Using a range of methods, from interviews to seminars, a case study of Chile - a middle-income country - investigates the interpretation of the purpose and role of SEA according to a range of stakeholders, and in more detail within the Ministry of Public Works. This leads to the proposition, and testing, of a framework that emphasises the need to interpret and operationalise SEA at the level of organisations (such as ministries or multi-lateral development agencies), not of economic sectors alone. It centres on the interactions of the context, the nature of strategic objects, the framing of 'environmental', the purpose of SEA, and the assessment's approach and tools.
The most important conclusion is that SEA can only facilitate more environmentally sustainable forms of development, if conventional wisdom about its raison d'être is questioned. This thesis rejects the rhetorical claims in normative interpretations of SEA which identify strategic initiatives, and particularly policies, plans or programmes, as the defining feature of SEA, and the main meaning of its 'strategic' dimension. It proposes that the context, and in particular organisations, should be the focus of a new conception of SEA which seeks to institutionalise rational and argumentative learning as a means to promote environmentally sustainable policy-making. These findings therefore contribute to both the theory and practice of SEA.

Appraisalödefined here to include a variety of ex ante techniques and procedures that seek to predict and evaluate the consequences of certain human actionsöhas been afforded an increas- ingly important role in environmental policy. We argue in this paper, however, that both the nature of appraisal and its role in the political process have been inadequately conceptualised. Exploring a literature that has tended to polarise `technical' and `deliberative' models, we identify a need for sensitive selection and combination of approaches, taking account of both the object and the objective of appraisal in particular contexts. We suggest that an important role for appraisal (by design or by default) may be that of providing spaces for dialogue and learning in the making of policies and decisions. A better understanding of such processes requires further research, particularly well- designed longitudinal work involving retrospective and `real time' studies of appraisal in practice.

China is an illustrative—and extreme—case of
the difficulties of balancing the pursuit of economic, social,
and environmental objectives. In 2003 it adopted a form of
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for its plans
and programs (referred to here as PEIA) with the aim of
moving towards greater environmental sustainability. The
literature has explored primarily the issue of methods and
legal procedures. This research contributes to the analysis
of PEIA through a different set of interpretative lens.
Drawing on recent developments in the theory and practice
of SEA, I propose a conceptualization of SEA effectiveness
that combines direct and incremental impacts, and a need
for context-specific systems as a way to focus on the
relationship between assessment, planning, and their con-
text, and thus maximize effectiveness. This framework
underpins the analysis of China’s experience, which I
explore with the help of interview material and the litera-
ture. The result is an evaluation of the strengths and
weaknesses of PEIA in terms of its purpose, assessment
concept, process, and methods. The detailed analysis of six
aspects of the context helps explain the origin of such
shortcomings, and identify opportunities for its improve-
ment. I conclude defining elements of a context-specific system for SEA that seeks to maximize the opportunity for
incremental, as well as direct, effectiveness in China.

The study illustrates how strategic environmental assessment (SEA) can promote sustainable development plans. It defines and applies an SEA methodology to two draft plans: the hydrological plan for the Duero basin in Spain and the irrigation plan for the region of Castilla y León. ...

This report of a workshop explores both theoretical and practice-related challenges of linking SSH and interdisciplinarity in research policy, programming and funding by the EU. The aim was to identify a range of recommendations towards informing the next programming period (FP9) from the perspective of ID, SSH and RRI, and possibly contribute to inform the final programming stage of H2020 (2018-2020)report.